White Christmas Odds in Germany, City by City

How likely is a white Christmas in Germany?

Less likely than the Christmas markets suggest. Under the rule used by Germany's national weather service, the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), Berlin had snow on the ground on all three days of Christmas in only 2 of the 30 years from 1991 to 2020, about 7%. Hamburg was the same, Munich managed 4 of 29 (14%) and Cologne/Bonn just once (3%). The mountains are another story: the Fichtelberg, above the ski resort of Oberwiesenthal, was white in 27 of 30 years, and the Zugspitze every single year.

The tool above shows these odds for 50 weather stations across Germany. You can change what counts as "white" and which years are included.

What counts as a white Christmas?

German Christmas runs over three days: Heiligabend (Christmas Eve, 24 December), and the first and second Weihnachtsfeiertag (25 and 26 December). The DWD only calls it a white Christmas when there is at least 1 cm of snow on the ground on the morning of all three days. That strict rule is the tool's default.

Newspaper tables often count differently, such as Christmas Eve only, or any one of the three days. The rule makes a big difference:

So if one article gives Berlin "30%" and another "7%", they are usually just using different rules.

Is it really snowing less at Christmas?

Yes. Comparing the two standard climate periods, the odds have dropped almost everywhere:

• Berlin: 17% (1961–1990) → 7% (1991–2020)
• Hamburg: 17% → 7%
• Munich: 33% → 14%
• Freiburg: 17% → 5%

The DWD links this to climate change: in the lowlands, December precipitation falls more often as rain, and snow that does settle melts faster. Germany also has a name for the mild spell that so often spoils things: Weihnachtstauwetter, the Christmas thaw, when mild Atlantic air melts the snow just before or over the holidays. The DWD expects it in 60–70% of years, depending on the region.

When was the last white Christmas?

According to the DWD, 2010 was the last time the whole of Germany had a white Christmas. Berlin, Hamburg, Frankfurt, Hanover and Düsseldorf had snow on all three days that year, and haven't since. Munich last managed it in 2003. Higher up, it's still common: Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Oberstdorf and the Brocken in the Harz were all white in 2024.

Where are the best odds?

Altitude is what matters. Under the DWD rule (1991–2020), the snowiest stations are:

• Zugspitze: 100%
• Fichtelberg (Oberwiesenthal): 90%
• Brocken (Harz): 86%
• Zinnwald-Georgenfeld (Ore Mountains): 79%
• Neuhaus am Rennweg (Thuringian Forest): 72%
• Oberstdorf: 66%, Garmisch-Partenkirchen: 61%

Among lower-lying towns, Hof in northern Bavaria does best at 38%, followed by Regensburg (21%) and Görlitz (20%). The Rhine valley and the north have the lowest odds.

Where the figures come from

We use the DWD Climate Data Center's daily snow-depth readings for each station and every Christmas since 1951. If a reading is missing for any of the three days, that winter is left out rather than counted as green, which is also how the DWD does it. Our figures for Berlin, Hamburg, Munich, Cologne, Leipzig and Freiburg match the DWD's own 2021 analysis. For Frankfurt we use the airport station, while the DWD used a city station, so the figures there differ.

Frequently asked questions